PACKAGINGFOR RESEARCH · DATA NOTE 01

U.S. Corrugated Carton Imports: H1 2026 vs H1 2025

In January through June 2026, U.S. imports classified under HTS 4819100040—other corrugated cartons, boxes and cases—reached approximately $315.0 million, up 10.16% from the same period of 2025.

Key Findings

• H1 2026 customs value was $315.0 million, compared with $285.9 million in H1 2025: a like-for-like increase of 10.16%.
• The 2025 full-year customs-value baseline was $608.8 million for HTS 4819100040.
• Canada and Mexico were the two largest 2025 origins by customs value, followed by China, Vietnam and Turkey.
• The top five origins represented 82.83% of 2025 customs value; the country-origin HHI was 1,841 on a 0–10,000 scale.
• These measures describe origin-country customs value inside the stated classification, not supplier concentration, quality, capacity or market share.

U.S. Corrugated Carton Imports Increased 10.16% in H1 2026

For the same January–June window, imports for consumption classified under HTS 4819100040 rose from $285,909,562 in 2025 to $314,966,929 in 2026. Rounded for readability, that is $285.9 million and $315.0 million. The calculated change is +10.16%.

The change should be read narrowly. Customs value is the declared value measure in the trade record; it does not reveal why the value changed. Product mix, price, exchange rates, country mix, timing and other factors can affect a customs-value series. The record also does not identify an order as a custom carton, a branded shipping box or a mailer. A headline about “corrugated packaging demand” would therefore claim more than this evidence measures.

2025 Full-Year Import Baseline

For context, 2025 imports for consumption in the same classification totaled $608,756,385, or $608.8 million when rounded to one decimal place. This is a full-year baseline, not an annualized estimate of H1 2026 and not a total U.S. corrugated-box market. The category label should remain adjacent to the number: other corrugated cartons, boxes and cases under HTS 4819100040.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau merchandise-trade data and approved Phase 2A calculations. The values are customs value within the disclosed HTS10 category.

Where U.S. Imports Came From

Country-of-origin data add useful context, but they answer a different question from the H1 trend. In 2025, Canada represented 29.73% of customs value in this category and Mexico represented 24.81%. China accounted for 15.08%, Vietnam 8.83% and Turkey 4.38%. Together, the first two origins represented a substantial North American share; China and Vietnam were also material origins in the recorded customs-value mix.

How Concentrated Was the Origin Mix?

The five largest origins accounted for 82.83% of 2025 customs value. The calculated origin-country Herfindahl–Hirschman Index was 1,841, using the disclosed country shares on a 0–10,000 scale. Here, the HHI is only descriptive context for the country mix in a customs classification. It is not a legal antitrust conclusion, supplier-level concentration measure, capacity assessment or risk score.

The distinction is practical. A country can account for a large value share while containing many suppliers, and a lower-share country can have few producers relevant to a buyer’s specific carton. Public customs data do not identify board grade, flute, dimensions, printing, performance testing, lead time or commercial terms. Country shares can therefore inform questions about sourcing exposure, but they cannot select a supplier.

What This Data Does Not Measure

HTS 4819100040 does not label a shipment as custom, printed, mailer, e-commerce, branded or supplier-specific. It does not capture all corrugated packaging, and it does not establish U.S. consumption, domestic production, demand growth, a shortage or the economics of a particular project. The H1 increase likewise does not show that any commercial product segment increased by 10.16%.

Nor are customs values quotes. A buyer comparing corrugated structures needs a controlled specification: internal dimensions, product weight, board and flute, print, coating, closure, pack-out, quantity, destination, testing and delivery terms. Without matched inputs, a trade aggregate and a supplier proposal answer different questions.

What Packaging Buyers Can Take From It

The useful implication is not that one origin is preferable. It is that buyers should classify the physical structure before using a trade trend as context. If a proposed package fits a different customs boundary, this series may not fit the decision. For a relevant structure, country mix can prompt a discussion of alternative origins, documentation handoffs, transit routes and continuity planning. Those are diligence questions, not predictions.

Buyers should then return to transaction evidence: approved samples, supplier capability, quality controls, current quotes and a matched delivery model. The data note provides a narrower orientation point—one classification, one H1 comparison and one year of origin shares—rather than a universal procurement answer.

How to Read the Trade Signal

A customs classification is a measurement boundary, not a product catalog. HTS 4819100040 provides a consistent way to observe a defined stream of imported merchandise over time, which makes the matched H1 comparison useful. It does not convert the classification into a commercial category. A corrugated carton used for one distribution route can differ substantially from another in board combination, flute profile, dimensions, print coverage, inserts, assembly, product-protection requirements and quantity. Those differences can change both the supplier universe and the resulting quote.

For that reason, the H1 result is best used as a screening signal. It can help a procurement team ask whether the current origin mix, route assumptions and documentation process deserve review. It cannot show which cost component changed, whether a supplier has available capacity or whether a different construction would be more suitable. The appropriate next step is to compare qualified suppliers against the same approved specification and commercial terms, while keeping the public trade series in its stated scope.

Origin Data Has Its Own Boundary

The origin chart records where customs value was attributed in 2025 for this exact classification. It does not identify the location of every conversion step, the source of fiber, the number of factories, ownership of a supplier or the location from which a buyer will receive a shipment. Country of origin also does not capture service performance, quality controls, regulatory status or the ability to meet a specific design requirement. Those questions require supplier documentation and project-level validation.

Canada, Mexico, China, Vietnam and Turkey are shown because they were the five largest origins by customs value in the validated 2025 record. The remaining 17.17% is grouped as Other only to make the ranked chart readable; it should not be treated as a single origin or supplier group. The concentration measures similarly summarize a distribution of country shares. They are useful for describing the observed mix, but not for making a conclusion about competition, resilience or a country’s suitability for a packaging project.

When using the note in an internal sourcing review, record the classification alongside the date range and the decision it is intended to inform. Keep the trade observation separate from supplier qualification. A sourcing file can note that the recorded origin mix is a reason to ask continuity questions, then document the answers using current quotes, specifications, sample approvals, delivery commitments and quality evidence. This separation prevents a broad public statistic from being treated as proof about a specific carton program. It also makes later review easier: the team can see which part of the decision came from a public customs series and which part came from transaction-specific evidence.

Methodology

This note uses validated Phase 2A U.S. Census Bureau merchandise-trade observations and approved calculations available through the August 21, 2026 evidence cutoff. The trade scope is U.S. imports for consumption classified under HTS 4819100040, described here as other corrugated cartons, boxes and cases. H1 compares January–June 2026 with January–June 2025. Origin shares use 2025 customs value for the same classification. The source does not establish commercial end use or supplier characteristics.

Sources

U.S. Census Bureau, Merchandise Trade Imports / USA Trade Online; validated evidence IDs TRD-0005, TRD-0006, TRD-0007, TRD-0049–TRD-0056. Calculations and qualifications are preserved in PackagingFor’s Phase 2A evidence system. Evidence cutoff: August 21, 2026.