PackagingFor Research · Data Note 06
U.S. Paper Packaging Recycling Rates: Why EPA and AF&PA Numbers Differ
METHODOLOGY NOTE · EVIDENCE CUTOFF AUGUST 21, 2026
EPA estimated a 96.5% recycling rate for corrugated boxes in its 2018 national materials data. The American Forest & Paper Association estimated that 69–74% of cardboard available for recovery was recycled in 2024. AF&PA separately estimated that 60–64% of paper available for recovery was recycled in 2024.
The figures are not directly comparable because EPA and AF&PA use different methodologies, denominators, material definitions, reference years, and statistical frameworks. The difference does not show that U.S. cardboard recycling fell from 96.5% to 69–74%.
Every recycling percentage needs its publisher, reference year, material scope, numerator, denominator, and method. A national or industry statistic also cannot establish whether a specific finished package is recyclable or contains recycled material.
Key findings
- EPA 2018: a 96.5% recycling estimate for corrugated boxes in the agency’s municipal-solid-waste material-flow framework.
- AF&PA 2024 cardboard: 69–74% of cardboard available for recovery was estimated as recycled.
- AF&PA 2024 paper: 60–64% of paper available for recovery was estimated as recycled.
- Different denominators: EPA estimated recycling relative to generation; AF&PA estimated recycling relative to material available for recovery.
- No valid trend: the EPA and AF&PA observations must not be joined into a decline, numerical change, or continuous time series.
The two panels report each source on its own terms. Their placement does not indicate a before-and-after change.
Estimated recycled tonnage relative to estimated generation in EPA’s material-flow framework.
COMPARABLE
Industry range using paper recycled relative to material available for recovery.
What Is the U.S. Corrugated Box Recycling Rate?
The statistic is useful when the source, year, category, and denominator remain attached. “Corrugated boxes” is EPA’s material category in the cited table. The 96.5% estimate should not be broadened into a universal paper-packaging recycling rate or used to substantiate the recyclability of a coated, laminated, contaminated, or mixed-material package.
Why Does EPA Report 96.5% for Corrugated Boxes?
EPA’s 2018 Facts and Figures tables estimate U.S. municipal-solid-waste generation and management flows. For the corrugated-box category, EPA’s recycling rate uses estimated recycled tonnage relative to estimated generation. The published value is therefore tied to EPA’s national material-flow model, category definitions, reference year, and rounding.
The method answers a system-level question about the estimated flow of a defined material category in 2018. It does not measure local collection access, participation, sorting yield, mill acceptance, or the end-of-life outcome for an individual package. It also does not update itself to the present merely because the EPA table remains publicly available.
Why Does AF&PA Report a 69–74% Cardboard Recycling Rate?
The AF&PA industry methodology estimates paper recycled divided by paper available for recovery. The validated evidence records adjustments to supply for net imports of product packaging, contamination and moisture, and grades not readily recycled. Input uncertainty is reflected as a range rather than a single point estimate.
AF&PA also reported a separate 60–64% range for paper available for recovery. That paper result is not a substitute for the cardboard range and does not isolate every paper-packaging format. Each material label and range retains its own scope.
Why Are EPA and AF&PA Recycling Rates Different?
| Source | Year | Material / metric | Reported value | Comparable as a trend? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. EPA | 2018 | Corrugated boxes recycling estimate | 96.5% | No |
| AF&PA | 2024 | Cardboard available for recovery recycled | 69–74% | No |
| AF&PA | 2024 | Paper available for recovery recycled | 60–64% | Separate material metric |
Did the Cardboard Recycling Rate Fall From 96.5% to 69–74%?
The two observations do not support any numerical difference or direction calculation. A valid trend would require a consistent series with a stable methodology, denominator, category, and comparable reference periods.
What Does “Available for Recovery” Mean?
In the validated AF&PA methodology, “paper available for recovery” is the denominator used to estimate the recycling rate. It starts from material supply and includes adjustments for net imports of product packaging, contamination and moisture, and grades not readily recycled. These inputs produce the published ranges.
Available for recovery should not be replaced with “all cardboard generated.” It is a defined industry-method denominator, not a count of all material placed on the market, all material collected, or all packaging accepted in every local program. Preserving the phrase prevents the 69–74% result from being detached from what AF&PA actually measured.
Is Recycling Rate the Same as Recyclability?
A national category rate cannot show that a particular paperboard package is accepted locally or successfully reprocessed. Coatings, films, windows, foils, adhesives, inks, inserts, closures, contamination, component separability, and local program rules may affect the finished configuration. Package-specific claims need evidence that matches the package and geography.
Is Recycling Rate the Same as Recycled Content?
Neither EPA’s 96.5% estimate nor AF&PA’s ranges establish the recycled-content percentage of a box. Recycled-content claims require evidence for the relevant component, percentage basis, source records, and qualification. A national recycling statistic cannot be converted into a product composition claim.
What About FSC Certification?
FSC chain-of-custody certification addresses sourcing and claim controls for certified material. It does not by itself establish a national recycling rate, local recyclability, actual recycling, or the recycled-content percentage of a finished package. Certification scope, recyclability evidence, and recycled-content evidence answer different questions and should remain separate.
What Should Paper-Packaging Buyers Take From These Statistics?
- Check the denominator. Never compare recycling percentages until source, year, material scope, numerator, denominator, and method align.
- Separate rate from recyclability. A national or industry rate does not prove that a finished package works in a specific recovery system.
- Separate rate from composition and certification. Recycled content and certified fiber require their own product records.
- Use package-specific evidence. Procurement and environmental claims should follow the approved construction, components, intended wording, and geographic scope.
Methodology
This Data Note uses only the validated sustainability evidence in the PackagingFor research corpus. EPA’s 2018 Facts and Figures tables provide the 96.5% corrugated-box estimate under the agency’s national municipal-solid-waste material-flow framework. AF&PA’s 2024 U.S. Paper Recycling Rates provide the 69–74% cardboard and 60–64% paper ranges using material available for recovery.
The observations retain their publisher, year, material label, denominator, and methodology. No cross-source mathematical comparison or continuous trend is calculated across EPA and AF&PA. The analysis also keeps recycling rate, technical recyclability, collection acceptance, recovered-fiber mill use, recycled content, and certification as separate concepts.
The evidence cutoff is August 21, 2026. No later statistic has been substituted for the approved evidence package. This page interprets published national and industry methods; it does not evaluate an individual package or provide legal approval for an environmental claim.
Sources
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2018 Facts and Figures Tables, corrugated-box material-flow estimate.
- American Forest & Paper Association, 2024 U.S. Paper Recycling Rates, paper and cardboard available-for-recovery ranges.
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